The Mill magazine

Thursday, October 9, 2003

The War Process

By David M. Fine

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians appears to be at its worst point in the past twenty years. With the quick demise of the “road map”, a perpetual state of limited war in the region, a suicide bombing this week, and a retaliatory Israeli bombardment within Syria, the situation looks as explosive as ever. If America genuinely wishes to transform this War Process back into a Peace Process, it is time to ponder the wisdom of providing such substantial and untethered financial and military aid to Israel.

The New York Times recently rapped President Bush's knuckles in an October 7th editorial for encouraging "the most hawkish impulses of Israel's prime minister, Ariel Sharon" and then admonishes Bush for not taking a tougher line with Israel:

"[Bush] has consistently failed to press Israel to take the kind of steps that could help such [Palestinian] leaders succeed, like a halt to settlement building. A more responsible American course is needed to turn the Middle East's attention back to peace and discourage any drift toward wider war."

But how can America really keep radical Israelis from creating more settlements, much less get them to dismantle existing ones? Not by mere words. The Times lamely exhorts Bush to alter his rhetoric. But the situation on the ground has radicalized to such an extent that only a big stick will reign in “The Warrior” Ariel Sharon. Otherwise there will be no Peace Process - the War Process, as guided by Israel’s hawks and fanatical Palestinians, will determine the outcome.

However, if America wanted to get talks going on a cease-fire tomorrow, shutting off the spigot to the some $2 billion in direct aid and $9 billion in loan guarantees that America has provided to Israel might get Mr. Sharon’s attention.

What if the U.S. presented the following plan: freeze aid to Israel until a cease fire is established and maintained for one year and some West Bank settlements are dismantled (as required by the 'road map'). Insist on Yasser Arafat's being replaced, while creating an international committee responsible for providing a sizeable portion of economic aid to the Palestinians – and make a portion of this aid contingent on there being a cessation of terrorist attacks against Israel.

There are only 3.5 million Palestinians in the territories – $3 billion in aid would amount to almost $1,000 per person, a fortune in the region.

Israel, west bank, gaza strip

West Bank and Gaza Strip

Population: 3.5 million
Infant mortality: 20.68 deaths per 1000 live births (West Bank) Unemployment Rate: 50 percent
% in Poverty: 60 percent
GDP Per Capita: $600 (Gaza) / $800 (West Bank)
Jewish population: 192,000 settlers

The West Bank, on the west bank of the Jordan River, is an area slightly smaller than the state of Delaware, and home to 2.2 million Palestinians and about 187,000 Jewish "settlers".

The Gaza Strip is about the size of Washington, D.C. and is home to 1.3 million Palestinians and about 5,000 settlers.

The GDP per capita of the territories rank among the poorest of all nations in the world, on par with Somalia and Ethiopia. See the rankings.

Israel

Israel is a relatively wealthy country, about the size of New Jersey.

Population: 6.1 million
Infant mortality: 7.37 deaths per 1000 births
non-Jewish population: 20 percent (mostly arab)
GDP per capita: $19,000
Unemployment rate: 10.4 percent (2002 est.)

Source: CIA World Factbook

Meanwhile, work with Arafat and other top Palestinians in the background to defang Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The CIA should also organize and generously fund a Palestinian peace organization to march nonviolently in the West Bank and Gaza and publicly call for an end to suicide attacks and a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

In addition, diplomatic initiatives could be made toward Syria, and even Iran, in an effort to get such regimes to end their backing of terrorist organizations. If America is playing it rough with Israel, and demonstrating a commitment to the Palestinians, Iran and Syria might be persuaded to take a different approach. Given the U.S. presence in Iraq, they both have an incentive to bargain.

Such moves will not guarantee an end to terrorist attacks, but neither have Israel’s various policies of targeted killings and demolitions of homes: just this week an attack in Israel claimed 19 lives, prompting Israel’s latest strike on Syria.

What they would do is put an end to the cycle of violence that currently dominates, and which, according to the Baltimore Sun, claimed the lives of 796 Israelis and 2,233 Palestinians since Yasser Arafat launched the Intifada in 2000.

Linking Israel’s aid to peace does not condone suicide attacks by fanatical Palestinians, nor is it meant to reward the launching of the Intifada – it is merely a recognition that Israel controls the situation, that it is the player with the big tanks and Apache helicopters. Israeli society may be terror-ridden, but at the end of the day, the Israeli Defense Forces call the shots in the occupied territories.

The Bush Administration insists that no progress can be made until the Palestinian leadership puts an end to the terrorist attacks. This is an impossible ultimatum, and Bush knows it. With Arafat unable to leave his compound and constant infighting among Palestinian elites, their hands are nearly tied. By taking this stance, Bush is putting the power in the hands of a few fanatical terrorists who have no interest in peace, or even in the preservation of their own lives, to maintain the awful status quo - leaving the majority of Palestinians at their mercy.

The Bush Administration isn’t stupid – so we must be doing this because we prefer the status quo.

Ariel Sharon and his right-wing cabinet prefer the status quo because, this way, they don’t have to compromise anything to the Palestinians.

President Bush told America that eliminating Saddam Hussein would somehow further the cause of peace in Israel. It hasn’t. Bush’s “road map” couldn’t be sustained and, with his recent approval of Israel’s attack on Syria, the Bush Administration appears to be condoning a continuation of the War Process – now linking it with our own War on Terror.

This is bad news. Not only for the people suffering in the region, but diplomatically it appears very unwise. With our recent takeover of Iraq, America needs to show the Middle East that is it not simply Israel's ally, but somewhat of a fair broker. We can wage our own War on Terror without inflaming old enmities in that region.

Any abrupt change in America’s relationship with Israel is unlikely – Congress recently voted to give Sharon an extra $1 billion, and any restriction on aid would be viewed with shock and alarm, as if America were abandoning Israel. It shouldn’t be – it would be America voicing its disapproval of Mr. Sharon’s aggressive policies of engagement. Israel is proud of being the only democracy in the Middle East – it can vote in a new Prime Minister.

America has been at the fore of Middle East diplomacy since Jimmy Carter brought Israel and Egypt together at Camp David in 1978. Today, it is literally in the middle of it all, having conquered and occupied Iraq. Given America's special role as arbiter, its current doctrine is increasingly one-sided. This is bad for peace and bodes ill for future relations in the region. It’s time to take the tough political steps needed to breathe life back into the Peace Process.




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