Saturday, November 6, 2004

2004 Election Results, Popular Vote Gorge Bush: 59,450,121 John Kerry: 55,939,660 BIG MARGIN STATES Texas Bush 4,519,023 61% Kerry 2,827,756 38% California Kerry 5,427,055 55% Bush 4,403,495 44%

Bush and Republicans Prevail Amidst Large Turnout

Dems need to turn to the South and West

President George W. Bush prevailed over Senator John Kerry to win re-election by a margin of nearly 3.5 million votes this November 2nd.

1.7 million of those votes came from the President's home state of Texas.

Kerry did beat Bush handily in California, by a margin of a million votes, but his victory there didn't compare to Bush's rout of him in Texas.

The lesson to be learned for Democrats? They need to find some hard-hitting new liberal blood from the South and West. And not just to run for Pres - but also to take back the Senate.

Bush also benefited from large margins elsewhere in the South: just over 500,000 votes came from Georgia, and margins of 400,000 votes emerged in North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Alabama.

Meanwhile, Republicans also picked up seats in the Senate and the House.

"We had the money, we had a ground operation the likes of which has never been seen, and we had a good candidate who stood toe to toe with the President and bested him in three debates," Harold Ickes told Time Magazine, "We had all that and we still lost…."

It was Kerry's hailing from Massachusetts that lost the Dems this election.

After the loss, it's painfully obvious - the ingredients the Democrats need to begin converting some of that large swath of red in the middle of America to blue are southerners and westerners.

The Democratic Party should begin scouting potential political talent in those regions like record labels scout bands - and planning for elections twelve years from now.

This election demonstrated there's no looming voter backlash to the complete Republican control of Washington. So it will be key for the Democratic Party to cultivate Southern, Western, and Midwestern liberals who are adept at spreading the Democrat message to voters in those areas.

A charismatic candidate from the South or West might convince voters in those states, say, that even something like universal health coverage is in their, and the nation's, interest.

Think of it - it is likely because he was from the South that Lyndon Johnson was even capable of seriously suggesting a War on Poverty back in the 1960s.

That's what politics is about - when the voter identifies with you, and trusts you not because of what you believe, but because of the culture you come from, your background, and how you relate to them.

Bringing America back to the Democratic Party may be less about policy and more about politics. Keep the message simple, bring back the South and West.

There's a lot of talk about how the Republicans' moral message is winning over voters, and certainly issues like gay marriage can split a certain phobic-vote.

But it might also have to do simply with issue simplicity: Gay marriage is very easy to deal with - you're either for or against, everyone knows what you're talking about and probably doesn't even have to think about it.

The Iraq War or health care are much more complicated to sort out and may give many voters headaches.

However, in this election, there was a definite cultural issue - no matter how hard Kerry might try, being wealthy royalty from New England was going to hurt him in the south, John Edwards notwithstanding. It also hurt him in crucial mundane Midwestern states like Ohio, which Bill Clinton won in '92 and '96.

Democrats desperately need to unseat someone in the next midterm elections and get some momentum back. Then, hopefully by next Presidential Primary season, in addition to Hillary Clinton, we'll see some new blood from Red Territory. New Englanders need not apply.

Click here for The Mill's coverage of Election 2004

~ David M. Fine

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